No Room Left: Justice System Faces Unprecedented Gridlock by 2026 - Resolve (2025)

The criminal justice system continues to weather against innumerable challenges. Members will all but know of the increasing, backlogs, and delays to the legal system, however another crisis that persists is the crisis in our prisons.

Early in their political tenure, the labour government announced the true gravity of the crisis facing prisons and the substantial overcrowding present throughout the country. As a result, the Lord Chancellor laid a statutory instrument (SI), which saw a reduction in the time served in prison for certain people currently serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS) from 50% to 40%. [1] This was, instead of some sort of reform or change, more a practical response to an overcrowding crisis.

The capacity crisis does not exist in a vacuum, it has been a notable contributor to trial delays, often when space to hold individuals on remand has run out, some have had to be released on bail and trials often rescheduled. This has a notable impact on victims and can lead to a loss in public confidence in the criminal justice system.

Despite the policy being implemented, and many prisoners having advance release, UK prisons are still set for a worrying test of capacity. In a report published on the 14th of March, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) urges the Government to undertake rapid action on the crisis in prison estates; forecasts now indicate that capacity will run out again in early 2026, despite the SDS40 policy releasing thousands of prisoners early.[2]

This crisis has reverberating effects across the criminal justice landscape, with antisocial behaviour professionals also highlighting various issues.

How did we get here, and how bad is it?

The United Kingdom has the highest imprisonment rates in western Europe, the prison population has risen by 70% in the last thirty years, projected to rise by a further 18,000 people by 2026, according to the Prison Reform Trust.[3]

We largely arrived at this point, through the increased in longer sentences. In the 2000s, the prison population was largely driven by more people going through the courts and being convicted.[4] After the 2010s, however, the population has largely been pushed by longer sentences.[5] According to the Institute of Government (IfG) that in the last few years it is largely those on remand and those recalled to prison, which has caused the population to rise rapidly, with the number of people on remand risen by 84% since 2019 and now accounts for around 20% of the prison population.[6]

It has also been argued, from institutions such as the Independent Sentencing Review, that governments over the past 25 years have, in an attempt to appear “tough on crime”, have driven the rising prison population that no evidence it prevents re-offending. [7] Of course, any new criminal legislation imposed by the new government has the risk of testing prison capacity to new levels.

So far, the practicality of the situation has meant the consideration of emergency measures. Ultimately, these are short term, any form of long-term, systemic reform will take a substantial time to enact and take effect. Ideas to change the very nature of how these prisons are run are being considered, however. Famously, those in the cabinet have been look to Texas, in the US, for ideas in prison management to avoid overcrowding.

Nick Hardwick, former chief inspector of prisons, notes on the plan that it has “huge potential in the UK” and that “It will help ensure prisoners are doing what is necessary to reduce the risk they will reoffend and create more victims.”[8]

The ripple affects of the crisis in prisons.

As previously articulated, the crisis in prisons does not just affect the prisoners, the staff, and the very prison they sit in, but also the wider criminal justice system. The report from the PAC, highlights that this ultimately hampers HM Prison and Probation Service’s (HMPPS) ability to rehabilitee offenders and deliver meaningful change.

Ultimately, it is much more difficult to deliver rehabilitate, educational, cultural, recreational, and religious activities when prisons are at their brink.[9]

Of course, the overcrowding in prisons, also means that any legislation that holds imprisonment as a tool for behaviour change, is largely toothless. We will have to wait and see what affects new legislation, namely from the Crime and Policing Bill, will also have. This means that legislation has to be carefully considered, and policy proposals have to rely on other means of enforcement, such as positive requirements, in order to have weight. However, this is of course in a context, where the very services that help facilitate these positive requirements, are often at their brink, due to austerity. Mental health in particular, has faced extreme pressures due to growing demand and underfunding according to a report from the Trades Union Congress (TUC).

Policy Proposals

Along with the already mentioned Texas Supermax option for increasing of prison capacity, there have been a variety of policy proposals issued for the issue facing our prisons.

  • Introduce ‘queuing system’ for immediate custodial sentences.

Proposed by the IfG, and recommended by JUSTICE, it was recognised that prisoners, already spend the last 12 weeks of their sentence in home detention, with a curfew enforced by an electronic tag. Therefore, the government could in fact, decide on the same approach to lower-risk offenders at the start of a prison sentence until prison space becomes available.[10]

  • Change to the use of remand

It was recommended by many, including the Howard League for Penal Reform, that an incoming government should urgently review the use of remand. This includes mechanisms that allow for a favour of bail, particularly for children, women and people experiencing mental health crisis, reserving the use of remand for those who pose the most risk to the public.[11]

  • Reduce incarceration rates through increased investment in other services.

Any increased spending on prisons could be mated with increased investment in preventive services in impoverished or underfunded communities, for instance, using early intervention and mentoring of at-risk youths. [12]

Of course, there are a plethora of policy recommendations for tackling the crisis in our prisons, with the above being but a snapshot.

The Labour government before office, pledged to do the following in order to fix prisons:

  • Take control of the planning process by classifying prisons as being of ‘national importance’ on public safety grounds, so the approval decision is in ministers’ hands.
  • Deliver the 20,000 promised jail places to ensure there is always enough space to lock up the most dangerous offenders.
  • Bring together prison governors and local employers to create Employment Councils to drive down reoffending, linking offenders to training and jobs, and reducing the burden on capacity in the long term.

Work is already underway to build what is penned as the ‘UK’s largest Jail’, at HMP Highpoint in Suffolk, with construction to increase capacity by more than 50%. [13] It waits to be seen as to how affective this prison expansion will be, and if it will help alleviate some of the worst of the prison crisis.

Gareth Davies, head of the National Audit Office (NAO) states for instance that, “The Government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost effectiveness of the prison estate..” [14]

More waits to be seen on the efficacy of our prison system, and how it is proposed to be fixed, what is evident is that change is needed, less we see some crippling effects to our public institutions.

[1] https://www.clinks.org/community/blog-posts/sds40-policy-and-next-steps

[2] https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/205761/prisons-crisis-as-justice-system-faces-total-gridlock-in-2026-pac-calls-for-rapid-action/

[3] https://prisonreformtrust.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Prison-the-facts-2022.pdf

[4] Ministry of Justice, ‘Criminal justice statistics: July 2011 to June 2012’, ‘Sentencing tables: June 2012’.

[5] Ministry of Justice, ‘Criminal court statistics quarterly, October to December 2023’, ‘Criminal court statistics quarterly: October to December 2023 (tables)’.

[6] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/crisis-prisons#footnoteref67_me67201

[7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8977l253lo

[8] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr52399eqgqo

[9] https://www.open-access.bcu.ac.uk/6451/1/Prison%20Overcrowding%20for%20repository%20%281%29.pdf

[10] JUSTICE, 'Time Better Spent: Improving Decision-making in Prisons', 2024, files.justice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/21105906/Time-Better-Spent-A-JUSTICE-Report-March-2024-1.pdf

[11] https://howardleague.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Grasping-the-nettle-Options-for-a-lasting-solution-to-the-prison-capacity-crisis-.pdf

[12] https://www.bristol.ac.uk/policybristol/policy-briefings/prison-funding-austerity/

[13] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2dk1nepvro#:~:text=HMP%20Highpoint%20set%20to%20become%20'UK's%20largest%20jail'&text=Three%20four%2Dstorey%20houseblocks%20will,and%20Great%20Thurlow%2C%20near%20Haverhill.

[14] https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/prison-expansion-plan-was-unrealistic-and-not-prioritised-nao/

No Room Left: Justice System Faces Unprecedented Gridlock by 2026 - Resolve (2025)
Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Gregorio Kreiger

Last Updated:

Views: 5737

Rating: 4.7 / 5 (57 voted)

Reviews: 80% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Gregorio Kreiger

Birthday: 1994-12-18

Address: 89212 Tracey Ramp, Sunside, MT 08453-0951

Phone: +9014805370218

Job: Customer Designer

Hobby: Mountain biking, Orienteering, Hiking, Sewing, Backpacking, Mushroom hunting, Backpacking

Introduction: My name is Gregorio Kreiger, I am a tender, brainy, enthusiastic, combative, agreeable, gentle, gentle person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.