2021 Film Review – 94th Academy Awards Preview (2024)

Finally reached the end – my final tally of 2021 films seen is 140. I have seen all films nominated for Academy Awards with the exception of three, which were unavailable to me, and I will note as I go through each category. As in prior years, I will offer who I would vote for if I could pick any film from the year (not restricted to the nominees), my pick of the nominees, and who I think will win.

First, though, screw ABC, and the Academy for giving in, on insisting to hold eight awards during the pre-ceremony. I do find it incredibly ironic that one of those awards that will be held during the red carpet time is for Best Editing, since these eight award presentations will be “edited by our creative and production teams and…folded seamlessly in the live televised show”. If it isn’t seamless, it didn’t work and it’s a disaster. If it is seamless, doesn’t that prove how essential editing is, and make it ridiculous to present before the show, during the less important time?

My main thought – nothing outside of the Super Bowl gets awesome ratings anymore. Attempting to improve the ratings of the pinnacle award ceremony for film by replacing award presentations with gimmicky host bits is the equivalent of trying to improve World Series ratings by making each game only 7 innings long, but having “7th inning stretches” between each inning. Somebody who doesn’t care about the Oscars is not going to tune in to the entire ceremony to see what Amy Schumer has in store. The people who watch the Oscars watch it because they love movies and want to see them rewarded (or they just love big events). Stop punishing those people to chase people who don’t care.

That’s all to say – the Academy is not going to be adding any additional awards any time soon. Still, they should. First, because there are areas of film that are not currently rewarded that should be. Second because, with the combination of the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories into a single Best Sound category (a welcome change), there are now 23 awards, a decidedly unpleasing number. Let’s add two and make it an even 25.

If I had a vote, I would press for Best Casting and Best Vocal Performance as the best representations of film that are not currently honored. But if we’re going with what would be most fun, I would go with Best Casting and Best First Feature Film (essentially a rookie of the year award) that would go to the director of the best directorial debut film. So, let me present my nominees and picks for those two awards.

Fictional Category: Best Casting

CODA (Deborah Aquila, Tricia Wood, and Lisa Zagoria)
The Humans (Ellen Chenoweth)
Licorice Pizza (Cassandra Kulukundis)
Mass (Henry Russell Bergstein and Allison Estrin)
~~West Side Story~~ Red Rocket (Sean Baker)

CODA had the challenge of filling several roles with hearing-impaired actors, with Marlee Matlin being the only notable such performer with any recognition coming in. I’ve included the film adaptation of the play The Humans since I consider it a masterful job of casting against type (Amy Schumer and Beanie Feldstein, especially, in dramatic roles). Licorice Pizza is mainly just for finding Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman, although it’s basically eliminated from contention since Paul Thomas Anderson has said that he had Haim in mind from the start and came up with the idea of casting Hoffman on his own. Mass is a case study in finding character actors that will sustain in lead roles. I briefly considered West Side Story, as the supporting cast of mostly unknowns is incredible (Ariana DeBose is going to be a star), but it was ultimately disqualified, because no film that casts Ansel Elgort is allowed to be considered for a casting award. My fictional vote goes to Sean Baker for Red Rocket. The idea of Simon Rex, a guy most known for working in porn and on MTV, and appearing in the later Scary Movie films, as a lead who appears in the entire film is something that nobody would have thought is a good idea, but he nailed it. The rest of the cast is filled out with people who really do look like they are from a tiny Texas town. It’s a masterpiece in finding the pieces.

My (fictional) winner: Sean Baker (Red Rocket)

Fictional Category: Best First Feature Film

Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Rebecca Hall (Passing)
Michael Sarnoski (Pig)
Rose Glass (Saint Maud)
Janicza Bravo (Zola)

I didn’t intend to have four of the five nominees for this category be women, but these were, to me, the five most impressively directed films of the year that meet the category. Since Zola is my favorite film of the group, that would get my vote.

My (fictional) winner Janicza Bravo (Zola)

On to the actual awards. I presented them in the order they were presented last year, knowing they will likely show up in a different order during this year’s ceremony.

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and David Sirota)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier)

It’s not a big surprise that C’mon C’mon, my 5th favorite film of the year, was shut out from any nominations – lead Joaquin Phoenix is notorious for not playing the game to draw attention to his projects, and the distribution company, A24, clearly put most of their eggs in the The Tragedy of Macbeth basket, but to me, it absolutely deserves a nomination in this category, in particular.

Of the actual nominees, none of them stick out to me. Don’t Look Up was a one-note joke and, to me, missed the opportunity to really go for the jugular in its satire. King Richard was much better than I expected it to be, but I would put the credit for its success on the performances (especially the magnetism of Will Smith) and the terrific tennis sequences. I adore Licorice Pizza, and think the writing is strong, but if I’m looking at the best screenplay, I picturing a novel that unfolds, with each sequence drawing on the last and the film coming together into a satisfying whole – Licorice Pizza is much closer to a series of vignettes. I was not particularly taken with either Belfast or The Worst Person in the World, but can fully admit that the writing was definitely the strongest aspect of both films. I’ll give the latter the nod, because I think it’s a stronger film overall.

As to what will actually happen in the ceremony, I think this is one of the single toughest awards to predict. I think a healthy portion of those who watched The Worst Person in the World will go for that, but not sure how many people that actually represents. Licorice Pizza is the favorite, but I think there is enough discomfort with the two controversies that I noted in my post that it won’t get enough votes. Don’t Look Up seems to be the most divisive – those who love it think it’s a masterpiece, but I think a lot have the same read as me. I’ll go with Belfast, the most boring possible winner, because if you have the opportunity to expect the Oscars to be boring, best to go with it.

My pick (all films): C’mon C’mon (Mike Mills)

My pick (nominees): The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier)

My prediction: Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe)
Dune (Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)

Most of the year, I was ready to announce my personal pick as Zola, both because it’s an extremely well-written film, and because I really want an Academy Award winning screenplay to be adapted from a tweet thread. But I remain astonished by what Hamaguchi and Oe were able to do with Drive My Car, adapting, essentially, three different stories into one and tossing in Chekhov for good measure.

As for the Academy, I see this as a two-horse race: CODA vs. The Power of the Dog. Ultimately, I think The Power of the Dog will be rewarded for its visual storytelling more than the writing, so enough voters will take this opportunity to reward CODA.

My pick (all films): Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe)

My pick (nominees): Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe)

My prediction: CODA (Sian Heder)

Best International Feature Film

Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World

I’m assuming Riders of Justice, my favorite film of the year, was not eligible for this year’s ceremony since it was released in Denmark in 2020, but I would try to vote for it anyway. If not, Drive My Car is pretty easily the best of the bunch (with honorable mention to Flee). I respect The Hand of God, even if I didn’t actually love the film. The Worst Person in the World did not do it for me. And Lunana is, by far, the most crowd-pleasing of the group, so it’s, unsurprisingly, my least favorite.

If a film in the Best International Category is also nominated for Best Picture, you have to assume it’s going to win, so I’m rolling with that.

My pick (all films): Riders of Justice

My pick (nominees): Drive My Car

My prediction: Drive My Car

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

The fact that Ben Affleck from The Last Duel is not even nominated is absurd. He gave the single most memorable performance of the year and elevated the film every time he showed up on screen. A drunk Affleck should burst into the offices of PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accounting firm responsible for overseeing the votes, smash their abaci, and scream “RECALCULATE!” (somehow this scene is not on YouTube so I can’t link it).

Of the actual nominees, Ciaran Hinds and J.K. Simmons were both equally as great as they always are, with absolutely nothing in either film to make them stand out. Jesse Plemons was better in Jungle Cruise – he’s always great, but in The Power of the Dog, he took a backseat. Ultimately, Troy Kotsur was the best part of the film he was in, which is usually all it takes for this award. I expect his acceptance speech to be a highlight of the night.

My pick (all films): Ben Affleck (The Last Duel)

My pick (nominees): Troy Kotsur (CODA)

My prediction: Troy Kotsur (CODA)

Best Make Up and Styling

Coming 2 America (Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, and Carla Farmer)
Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, and Julia Vernon)
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson, and Eva von Bahr)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh)
House of Gucci (Goran Lundstrom, Anna Carin Lock, and Frederic Aspiras)

Every year, there is at least one film nominated that I absolutely dread seeing. Usually it’s an incredibly dry film, where I can still see the appeal, even if it doesn’t work for me. There are a couple of those this year – Cyrano and Four Good Days come to mind. Rarely is there a film the Academy forces me to watch that is legitimately awful, but sometimes they slip through, and that’s (what I assumed) Coming 2 America would be this year. Fortunately, I enjoyed it far more than I expected, and think it’s honestly extremely close to being just as good and funny as the original (that’s slight disrespect to the original, which I find a tad overrated, but mostly praise of the new one).

As for my pick and prediction, the enduring image of The Eyes of Tammy Faye will always be the makeup-caked face of Jessica Chastain, and it’s worthy of this accolade (even for a pretty lousy movie).

My pick (all films): The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh)

My pick (nominees): The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh)

My prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh)

Best Costume Design

Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

Anytime you have a film centered around the fashion industry, like Cruella is, it’s a lock for this award. Personally, I’m partial to the impressive costuming in Cyrano, but that may just be because I was looking for something to distract me from the singing.

My pick (all films): Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)

My pick (nominees): Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)

My prediction: Cruella (Jenny Beavan)

Best Sound

Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, and Niv Adiri)
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett)
No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, and Mark Taylor)
The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, and Tara Webb)
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy)

Generally speaking, the safest bet for the Best Sound category is a musical or a big blockbuster, meaning this likely comes down to West Side Story vs. Dune. My preference is Dune – I think the Academy will go the other way.

My pick (all films): Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett)

My pick (nominees): Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett)

My prediction: West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy)

Best Short Film (Live Action)

Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold

Usually, the documentary shorts are super heavy and put me in a funk after. This year, the films, though often dealing with heavy topics, weren’t quite as dire as in year’s past. The live action short films, however, picked up the mantle, with the dreariest bunch of films I’ve seen in a while.

Take and Run seemed so outlandish that I was initially dismissive – when I read up on the actual practice of Ala Kachuu, however, turns out they stuck pretty close to reality, which is utterly terrifying. If films are empathy machines, Take and Run spurs a ton of empathy, even if it’s not particularly cinematic. The Dress is basically a less light-hearted version of Cyrano – I didn’t realize I would actually miss the singing, but I did. I am so happy that Riz Ahmed is in my life and creating, as well as acting in films, and The Long Goodbye is powerful in moments, but somehow felt a bit cliched (the talking to the camera bit felt like a lesser version of Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods). On My Mind is slight, and a bit maudlin, but a well-constructed story. My personal favorite, though, is Please Hold, which applied a science fiction approach to a very modern problem, with just the right amount of levity.

Ultimately, I think the Academy will choose the honor the most well-known name, which is Ahmed.

My pick (all films): Please Hold

My pick (nominees): Please Hold

My prediction: The Long Goodbye

Best Animated Short Film

Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper

Boxballet is one of the films I was unable to see as it is not available anywhere, and it’s the one that I could not find a date when it will be available. I don’t think it’s the primary reason, but the fact that it’s Russian probably doesn’t help.

Of the others, this category felt more adult-themed than other years. Robin Robin is the only family-friendly one of the bunch, and felt slight, for that reason. Bestia is dark as hell, with interesting animation, but between the murder and bestiality (literally), it got to be a bit much for me. Affairs of the Art seemed like if Wes Anderson was actually insane, putting in weirdness for weirdness sake, to not much effect. I found myself quite moved by The Windshield Wiper, a meandering, unfocused consideration of love with animation that I can only describe as an off-kilter Grand Theft Auto theme.

In the past, I’ve resisted the urge to predict my favorite short films of the year, under the assumption that the Academy will end up rewarding the most generic option (this year, that’s Robin Robin), and have been frequently burned in that assumption. So I’ll take a chance on the Academy seeing the same thing I see.

My pick (all films): The Windshield Wiper

My pick (nominees): The Windshield Wiper

My prediction: The Windshield Wiper

Best Animated Feature Film

Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

I thought this was a decent, if underwhelming year, for animated films. When listing out my favorite films, the highest animated film was Cryptozoo, all the way at number 20. Most of these (with Luca being the exception) were pretty close together not far after, with The Mitchells vs. the Machines being the most enjoyable by a small amount over Encanto. I expect the Academy to be charmed by Disney, however, and the celebration of diversity and the music of Lin-Manuel Miranda to give Encanto the win.

My pick (all films): Cryptozoo

My pick (nominees): The Mitchells vs. the Machines

My prediction: Encanto

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies

When We Were Bullies was not seen by me, as HBO Max announced they will make it available for streaming on March 30, 2022, which seems like a direct attack on me (but wait until the next category). Of the remainder, I found Three Songs for Benazir to be too unfocused (there is a random 4 year jump near the end that I found disorienting), and The Queen of Basketball to be too focused (the subject, the first woman drafted by an NBA team, is a fascinating woman, but it focuses only on her college basketball career and not her life after playing). Audible is a powerful story, but had swelling music during nearly every scene that began to annoy me after a bit. Lead Me Home is the most cinematic of the nominees, with drone shots of the various cities, and a powerful story about homelessness that is desperately urgent for our times.

As for the winner, Netflix has distributed three of these films (Audible, Lead Me Home, Three Songs for Benazir), so that makes it difficult for them to make a push for any of them. The Queen of Basketball has the New York Times behind it, which is always a safe bet.

My pick (all films): Lead Me Home

My pick (nominees): Lead Me Home

My prediction: The Queen of Basketball

Best Documentary (Feature)

Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing With Fire

I was unable to see Writing With Fire, as it is not streaming anywhere or playing in any theaters – instead, PBS, the distributor, announced it will start airing on March 28, 2022, literally the day after the Oscars. I’ve now gone full Republican in wanting to burn public television and radio to the ground.

My favorite documentary of the year, Listening to Kenny G, was not nominated – unclear if it was eligible or not, as it played a few festivals, but otherwise only streamed on HBO Max.

Of the rest, my favorite was Flee, the only one to make my honorable mentions list. Ascension was interesting, in documenting the insane levels of financial inequality in modern-day China, but the fact of the matter is that a similar documentary in the United States would be even more stark, so it feels like the whole plank and splinter thing from the Bible. Attica is a well-told story of an important event, but felt pretty blah as a documentary. Meanwhile, Summer of Soul will win, and I won’t say it’s undeserved, because the restoration and compilation of the material is an impressive and historical feat…but that doesn’t make it a film. Apparently I’m a bit too traditional for my own good.

My pick (all films): Listening to Kenny G

My pick (nominees): Flee

My prediction: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best Visual Effects

Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer)
Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick)
No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick)

The visuals in No Time to Die were no better or worse than any other James Bond film, and the same with both Shang-Chi and Spider-Man when it comes to Marvel. I am sick to death of shooting everything (literally everything) on a green screen. Free Guy was at least a bit creative, but as you could tell from my previous blogs, I despised that film, so I cannot vote for it. Dune was, perhaps, the most impressively rendered big budget blockbuster since Mad Max: Fury Road, and is a worthy winner.

My pick (all films): Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer)

My pick (nominees): Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer)

My prediction: Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

If I was picking this category, I wouldn’t be able to keep out Riley Keough from Zola and Gabby Hoffman from C’mon C’mon – both were outstanding, with a slight nudge to the latter.

Of the nominees, Jessie Buckley was terrific, and would be a deserving winner. It’s not easy to play a younger version of a film lead, especially when that lead is as talented as Olivia Colman, but Buckley was able to adopt the mannerisms to make it plausible while still making the role her own. I honestly don’t remember Judi Dench in Belfast. Kirsten Dunst is outstanding, and overdue for these strong roles she’s been getting recently, but there was nothing about her character in The Power of the Dog that wouldn’t have been rendered just as well with any other number of actresses. Aunjanue Ellis gets the standard child nomination, which is fine – she was believable in the role, but the award doesn’t go to who best learned how to play tennis, and Will Smith dominated that film. That leaves Ariana DeBose, who, along with Mike Faist as Riff, completely stole the film from the miscasted leads. She will be a deserving winner, and I can’t wait to see what she does next.

My pick (all films): Gabby Hoffman (C’mon C’mon)

My pick (nominees): Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

My prediction: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

Best Production Design

Dune (Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major and Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo)

With Dune, I honestly couldn’t tell what was done on a sound stage and what was done on location, which is a testament to the film, but less so to production design. The power of The Power of the Dog is in it’s natural vistas. The Tragedy of Macbeth was gorgeous, all sharp angles, but struggles with the same issues as Dune. West Side Story had gorgeous design of a New York undergoing massive change. But I’ll give the edge to Nightmare Alley, with a recreation of a carnival of delights and horrors that sparks a lasting image.

As for the actual winner, Dune is the favorite in this category, but I’ll go out on a limb and predict the Academy will be content with restricting Dune to the technical categories that don’t involve actual props.

My pick (all films): Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)

My pick (nominees): Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)

My prediction: Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)

Best Cinematography

Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

If we’re going by which film has the best and most memorable shots, it’s hard for me to go against Licorice Pizza, but it appears the Academy didn’t agree with me. For that same standard of the nominated films, I would be between The Power of the Dog and The Tragedy of Macbeth, with a slight edge to the latter. The Academy, I believe, will likely credit the astonishing visuals in The Power of the Dog to the director and honor her, and award this category to the film with, in their mind, the second best director, Denis Villeneuve.

My pick (all films): Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman)

My pick (nominees): The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)

My prediction: Dune (Greig Fraser)

Best Film Editing

Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
tick, tick…BOOM! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

The Power of the Dog and Dune seem like odd choices in this category – The Power of the Dog is built along long, drawn-out scenes that seem to need little editing, and Dune has impressive fight sequences, but is more focused on bombastic shots. King Richard is effective in cutting together the tennis sequences in a way that reasonably approximates in actual match. Meanwhile, Don’t Look Up follows the standard Adam McKay model as a film with a lot of cuts, and it’s fair to recognize the difficult work of the editor, though I still didn’t feel like it came together as a satisfying whole. Meanwhile, tick, tick…BOOM! does an excellent job of bringing mixing and matching the music and events into an impressive show. This would be a pretty major upset for the actual Academy, but let’s take a chance.

My pick (all films): tick, tick…BOOM! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

My pick (nominees): tick, tick…BOOM! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

My prediction: tick, tick…BOOM! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

Best Original Score

Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

Time for a full confession – I don’t much care about the score. I only notice a score if it’s distracting and bad. And since I didn’t notice the score in any of these films, I can’t complain. So I’ll give my personal award to my favorite musician of the group, and the only one who managed to compose The Bends, OK Computer, Kid A, and Hail to the Thief. For the Academy pick, I have a hard time going against Zimmer.

My pick (all films): The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

My pick (nominees): The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

My prediction: Dune (Hans Zimmer)

Best Original Song

“Be Alive” from King Richard (DIXSON and Beyonce Knowles-Carter)
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Lin-Manuel Miranda)
“Down to Joy” from Belfast (Van Morrison)
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Diane Warren)

Of all the categories, this is the one I despise the most. There is already a Grammy Awards to reward the best music (even if they almost always get it wrong) – why not use this category to reward the music that is created in the actual service of a film, instead of the best song to play over the end credits? With that in mind, here are the nominees that I would put forth:

“Black and Blue is the Best I Can Do” from Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Josh Homme)
“I Saw a Girl Today” from Bad Trip (Eric Andre, Ludwig Goransson, and Joseph Shirley)
“Surface Pressure” from Encanto (Lin-Manuel Miranda)
“That Funny Feeling” from Inside (Bo Burnham), even though I prefer the Phoebe Bridgers version
“We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from Encanto (Lin-Manuel Miranda)

I guarantee the Academy is kicking themselves for not actually nominating “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”, a massive hit, and instead nominating “Dos Oruguitas”, literally the worst song from Encanto. The Academy has no interest in awarding anything to Van Morrison right now. “No Time to Die” will suffer for not being “Skyfall”. Meanwhile, it seems like everybody in Hollywood loves Diane Warren, and she’s usually a safe bet to win, but it would be really dumb to bet against Beyonce.

My pick (all films): “That Funny Feeling” from Inside (Bo Burnham)

My pick (nominees): “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)

My prediction: “Be Alive” from King Richard (DIXSON and Beyonce Knowles-Carter)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Alana Haim should be in this category, and should win.

Of the rest, I really disliked Jessica Chastain and the film, where her makeup does most of the work (which I already rewarded earlier). Nicole Kidman was better than I feared she would be, and brought real human touch to her portrayal of Lucille Ball, but was nowhere near one of the five best female lead performances of the year. Olivia Colman is always great, and certainly didn’t fail here, but I preferred the other two.

I came into Spencer fully expecting to hate it, and it would up barely missing my top 10 favorite films of the year list, and a health amount of the credit for that goes to Kristen Stewart. Her portrayal of Princess Diana in emotional torment is powerful. But I give the slight edge to Penelope Cruz, and her deeply nuanced portrayal of a mother in crisis.

As for my prediction, this category seems like a legitimate toss-up, so I’m going to do something positively unlike me and assume the best.

My pick (all films): Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

My pick (nominees): Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

My prediction: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

I would love to make this a couple’s event and send Javier Bardem on his way with a trophy to put next to Cruz’s on their mantle, but his Desi Arnez was charming but forgettable. I have no issues with the other four nominations, and all deserve credit, so it’s picking nits at this point. Cumberbatch gets cut first, basically for the story of it – we all know he has this in him. Andrew Garfield showed an entirely new side in tick, tick…BOOM!, and was generally shocking, even as an actor that I’ve historically liked. I have a feeling this won’t be his first nomination. Will Smith dominated the film in ways large and small, and has the most fascinating arc, from rapper to television actor to blockbuster lead to respected elder statesman, and the Academy will lap that up. But my personal vote would be for Denzel, who brings a weathered approach to a character usually played by a younger man, and excels.

My pick (all films): Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

My pick (nominees): Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

My prediction: Will Smith (King Richard)

Best Directing

Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

For me, the best directed film I saw this year was Dune, so the fact that Denis Villeneuve wasn’t nominated was a bit of a shocker to me. In the absence of that, I’ll go with my favorite film of the group.

More than any other category, Best Director is built on narrative. Based on that, it’s fairly easy to rule out both Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car was a feat in writing more than visuals) and Paul Thomas Anderson (a master, nominated for a work considered lesser than previous outings). I think Kenneth Branagh is respected, but less so than Steven Spielberg, so anybody who would have voted for Branagh will go with Spielberg instead. But we have a film directed (masterfully) by a woman about toxic masculinity – it’s a lock (even if it seems like Jane Campion is going out of her way to try to lose it).

My pick (all films): Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

My pick (nominees): Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

My prediction: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Best Picture

Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

The Best Picture award is done differently from all of the other categories, in that instead of every voter picking a winner, all rank their films in order from #1 to #10. The #1 films are tabulated and, if no film earns 50% of those votes, the film that got the lowest number of #1 votes is eliminated, and the votes are tabulated again. This continues until a film gets greater than 50% of the vote.

To start, I will provide my ranking of 1 through 10:

My vote:

Licorice Pizza
Drive My Car
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
King Richard
Belfast
Nightmare Alley
CODA
Don’t Look Up

As for who the Academy will choose, it’s looking like it will come down to The Power of the Dog vs. CODA. CODA, essentially, is nominated solely because of representation. Don’t get me wrong – representation is important, and the fact that the film intentionally cast hearing-impaired actors to play hearing-impaired characters is fantastic. It’s why there should be an award for casting, which I would gladly hand to CODA. The film is weak and is not a Best Picture, and I trust enough voters will see it that way.

My prediction: The Power of the Dog